The analysis in the electric vehicle (EV) industry

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Introduction
The industry chosen for the analysis is the electric vehicle (EV) industry, whose main
revenues originate from the production and sale of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in
electric vehicles (PHEV), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). The industry operates solely on
electricity, with a few hybrid variations, unlike the gasoline automotives, which are powered
on fuel. The former run on electric motors, which are charged using batteries. The batteries
come in different designs, including lithium ion, zinc-air, and molten salt, with the goal being
to eliminate the environmental pollution caused by fuel-powered vehicles. Therefore, the
demand for electric cars is currently on the rise due to the benefits of low carbon emissions,
convenient at-home charging capabilities, lower engine sound pollution, and smoother rides.
This report analyses the EV industry to understand the trends, competition, political,
economic, social, technological, and short-to-medium term factors that make the sector
highly lucrative for investment.
Industry Trend
The global EV industry has been growing exponentially for a decade, and in 2020, the
number of EVs manufactured reached the 10 million mark, having increased by 43% from
the previous year. The majority of the new EV registrations in 2020 originated from the
BEVs, which accounted for two-thirds of the stock (Global EV Outlook, 2021). Industry
trends show that the global market for EVs is expected to grow from 4.093,000 units in 2021
to 34,756,000 units as of 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.8% (Fig. 1)
(MarketsandMarkets, n.d.). In terms of valuation, the global EV market is expected to hit
$802.81 billion by 2027, up from the $162.34 billion valuation in 2019. During this period,
the North American and European markets are set to contribute about 51.0% in market share
(Singh, 2020). Several factors, such as the surge in demand for low-emission vehicles,
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government subsidies for zero-emission vehicles, and tax rebates have boosted and will
continue to guide electric vehicle manufacturers’ ability to build and sell EVs in a costeffective manner (MarketsandMarkets, n.d.). As a result, there is a growing demand for EVs
across the globe as many countries around the world have set emission reduction targets.
While the European EV market recorded a 22% contraction in 2020, there was a more
than double registration of new EV units, reaching a record 1.4 million. Germany is the
leading manufacturer with 395,000 new EVs followed by France with 185,000 newly
registered units. Registrations originating from the UK increased by more than double, to
reach 176,000, while Norway’s sales share rose from about one-third in 2019 to 75% in 2020.
The main factors contributing to the rise in EV production in the European markets are the
CO2 emission standards set by the European Union, liming the average level of emissions per
kilometer covered by new cars. Additionally, there has been an increase in European
governments’ subsidies targeting EV manufacturers, which has helped counter the impact of
the COVID-19 pandemic (Global EV Outlook, 2021). These incentives have helped bolster
Europe’s position as a leading target market for EV manufacturers and sellers.
Similarly, the McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index shows that the EV market is
experiencing a regional shift in dynamics. Sales in European markets are on the rise while
China and the United States markets have reported a drop. For example, in 2019, China’s EV
sales remained constant at approximately 1.2 million units, marking a 3% rise from 2018. At
the same time, the US EV sales for 2019 were 320,000 units, which was a 12% decline from
the previous year. The variations in EV sales were also noted in 2020, whereby China and US
quarter one EV sales declined by 57% and 33%, respectively, from the first quarter in 2019.
In contrast, Europe’s EV sales rose by 25% during the same period, indicating that the
European region has the strongest EV growth so far (Gersdorf et al., 2020). This trend
indicates that EV manufacturers should expect to make even more sales in the coming years,
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while investors should look to make more returns due to the adoption of EVs across multiple
jurisdictions in developed and emerging markets.
Europe is the largest EV market primarily due to friendly regulations that favor EV
manufacturers. For instance, according to the new European Union standards on carbon
emissions, passenger cars should only emit 95 grams of carbon dioxide per every kilometer
covered. Additionally, 95% of cars in the European market were required to comply with this
standard in 2020 and 100% are expected to have complied by the end of 2021 (Gersdorf et
al., 2020). Indeed, EV sales are highest in these states, with the underlying factors promoting
the adoption being policy, incentives, access to charging centers, and local action. The
requirement to reduce CO2 emissions and adoption of zero-emission policies are aspects
likely to boost EV manufacturers’ entry and expansion into new markets.
Competition
Tesla Model 3, Audi e-tron, Hyundai Kona, and Volks Wagen’s e-Golf are the
leading models in the EV market. On average there were about 370 electric car models
available in 2020, which was a 40% rise from 2019. The competitive environment in the US
has become less friendly to new EV sellers due to factors such as weak regulations and
incentives, especially at the national level. Still, the trend shows increased influx of EV car
models in the global market, from approximately 86 models in 2015 to about 368 models in
2020 (Fig. 2) (Global EV Outlook, 2021). Indeed, competition in the EV industry is set to
increase further over the coming years. This forecast indicates that the demand for EVs is on
the rise and multiple players are entering the market, causing increased supply. Investors
should look to diversify their portfolios to ensure their investments are balanced between
established EV stocks and promising new players.
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Besides Tesla, some of the other key automakers expected to make an increased entry
into the EV market include Toyota, General Motors (GM), Ford, and Honda. Therefore, the
demand for EVs is only starting to rise. Tesla’s market capitalization of 1008.26b is a mark of
the company’s dominance in the EV market, but competitors like Toyota, GM, Ford, and
Honda whose market caps are 241.23b, 78.77b, 60.86b, and 50.49b respectively, are set to
command a higher EV market share over the coming years. Market capitalization is a
measure of the company’s value, obtained by multiplying the number of shares outstanding
by the stock price. The higher the market cap, the bigger the company’s size and market share
and the more robust the economies of scale and business models. Therefore, competition is
expected to get stiffer in the long-run, and investors should look to invest in more promising
new entrants.
The mounting competition in the EV industry can also be seen from the investor
sentiments. For instance, in late September, Cathie Wood, a renowned investor sold about
$270 million of her investment in Tesla stock. Analysts believe that the EV market is now
ripe for new entrants and the rising demand for EVs is creating room for startups and even
better buy opportunities for investors. Instead of focusing on more established and
overbought stocks, it is time to consider other more promising competitors. The leading EV
rival stocks to look into include (Hicks, 2021):
a) GM, (it is committed to introduce 30 new EV models by 2025),
b) Ford (it is refocusing its efforts to expand and build more EVs),
c) Li Auto Inc. (a Chinese car manufactuerer with a hybrid approach),
d) Nio (a low-cost Chinese EV maker), and
e) Nikola Corp. (it produces high-range EVs by combining hydrogen fuel cells with
electric battery power).
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Impact of Political Factors
The success of the EV industry is pegged on a number of political factors, including
government incentives aimed at boosting the penetration of EV vehicles and to minimize
greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the US government offers $7,500 tax credits to every
EV buyer. However, the capping for this tax benefit is set at 200,000 EV deliveries within the
US for every manufacturer. However, if a manufacturer meets this target, they can only look
forward to new incentives (Dudovskiy, 2021). The tax credits make the playing ground for
EV manufacturers favorable, giving both established and new entrants a chance to produce
and sell affordable units.
The operations of EV market players in the US and abroad are subject to a number of
incentives and regulations. The Paris Climate Agreement has presented opportunities for EV
market players to contribute to e-mobility and the achievement of the desired emission
targets. For instance, new buildings are required to have EV-charging facilities. As a result,
many jurisdictions across the USA and Europe (such as Spain, Sweden, and Lithuania) have
established public centers with EV-charging stations (Petrauskiene et al., 2020). The CO2
standards and mandatory targets for EV sales across jurisdictions govern the operations of
EV manufacturers. For instance, California and China have established strict regulatory
standards, with the former requiring all newly sold passenger vehicles to meet the zero
emission threshold, by 2035. Given that the transportation industry contributes to more than
half of California’s carbon pollution, the Governor is taking stringent measures to curb
climate change (Shieber, 2020). In China, the government supports EV manufacturers and
importers by offering them EV quotas, tax exemptions, manufacturing subsidies, and support
to put up EV charging centers. Provincial governments have also come on board by offering
preferential license plates and other subsidies to EV users and manufacturers. Other policies
by the Chinese central government, including, zero emission targets, help create a favorable
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operating environment for EV manufacturers, leading to the attainment of clean air in China’s
cities, reduction in oil import bills, and positioning of China as a leader in the EV industry
(Center on Global Energy Policy, n.d.). Overall, government-backed incentives and
regulations have boosted the entry and adoption of EVs into local, regional, and global
markets.
The State and Future of the Economy
Government subsidies and tax reduction initiatives are a common mechanism aimed
at boosting the adoption of EVs and reduction of carbon emissions. Many jurisdictions across
the USA (such as New York, California, and Nevada), Europe (such as Italy, Lithuania,
Spain, and Sweden), and China have supported these efforts. In Europe, Italy has introduced
a taxation policy aimed at exempting EV users from paying motor vehicle tax for a period of
five years. Additionally, the nation has adopted a National Energy Efficiency Fund with a
300-plus million euros worth of grants. These funds are meant to support initiatives for
sustainable mobility (Petrauskiene et al., 2020). In China, the Shanghai government supports
key EV players, such as Tesla, through corporate income tax benefits. Therefore, eligible
firms are allowed to pay a 15% income tax rate, which is lower than the statutory 25%
corporate tax rate for firms operating in China (SEC, 2021). However, there are looming
threats to the future of EVs especially due to the high adoption costs. The high prices of EV
inputs, such as batteries could limit adoption in emerging markets. Therefore, government
support and strategic partnership with raw material suppliers are of essence in ensuring a
steady penetration of EVs into the global economy.
The reduction in the cost of EV batteries is a positive economic aspect making it
favorable to manufacture and sell EVs. The production of EV batteries in masses has seen
their prices drop over the past decade, hence, decreased costs of EVs. For instance, in 2010,
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one EV battery went for about $1,100/kWh, but by 2020, the price had dropped to $137/kWh,
while in China, the price is $100/kWh. By 2030, EV battery prices are expected to drop even
further to about $60/kWh, and since this component is very crucial in EV manufacturing, we
expect to see further decline in the prices of EVs (MarketsandMarkets, n.d.). The cheaper the
EVs, the higher their adoption in emerging markets and the more favorable the market will be
to new entrants.
Consumer spending on EVs and scalability are key aspects to consider before
investing in stocks in the EV market. In 2020, consumers spent $120 billion on EV
purchases, marking a 50% increase from the previous year (Global EV Outlook, 2021)).
Given the improved vehicle efficiency and fuel savings arising from the use of EVs, it is
expected that consumers will have more disposable income to spend on other goods and
services, further boosting economic growth. Therefore, EV manufacturers should look
forward to increased EV purchases motivated by savings on fuel. “Must-have” actions, such
as installing public charging stations and issuance of low-interest loans to EV manufacturers
could make EV production more sustainable. Overall, investors should have a buy and hold
outlook on the market because all pointers indicate an economic boom driven by buyer
behavior.
Job growth will be expected in cities with a high number of EV manufacturers. While
some jobs will be lost in the gas industries, the increase in employment in the EV industry
will more than compensate for the difference. For instance, it is expected that on average,
more than 250 new jobs will be created when a city issues subsidies and incentives to boost
the production of at least 10,000 EVs. These efforts will play a key role in boosting the
economic outlook of the EV market, making it favorable to manufacturers and speculative
investors.
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Social Trends
EV adoption and penetration is driven by several social trends, including consumer
education, class, and level of environmentalism. More educated citizens are open to the idea
of renewable energy sources and ultimately, the use of electric vehicles for mobility
purposes. However, EV market penetration is threatened by social weaknesses like social
class. For instance, low-income earning populations still prefer using large and sophisticated
diesel vehicles. Even so, an increased focus on environmental sustainability is becoming a
trend, especially in the face of deaths and illnesses associated with air pollution. For instance,
in Brazil, bad air quality is motivating the adoption of EVs as people seek mobility patterns
that enhance people’s health. These social trends have boosted the adoption of EVs across
many regions worldwide.
There are negative social trends threatening the adoption of EVs. One of these is the
poverty and civil unrest in mineral-rich areas, where raw materials used to develop EV
batteries are sourced from. The mining activities not only disrupt the traditional lifestyles of
local communities, but they also cause deforestation. The main and rare earth metals required
for EVs include lithium, cobalt, manganese, and nickel. A majority of these resources are
found in Chile, Bolivia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, South Africa,
Brazil, Ukraine, Australia, and China (Fig. 3). Some of these regions, such as Congo are
associated with violence from the local leaders over the control of resources. In Bolivia, the
Uyani salt flats are a rich source of lithium reserves, but the discovery of this unique source
of wealth has caused conflicts between the local and federal governments, and local residents
because the government made the region into a fiscal reserve. Only a government-appointed
company can mine the mineral, yet, 59% of the residents live in poverty. In Chile’s Atacama
region, social activism has become a trend against lithium mining. Over the years, increased
mining activities have caused social problems like adverse water shortages, unemployment,
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and loss of tourism (Vidhi, Shrivastava & Parikh, 2021). These social trends pose challenges
to consistent and sustainable production of EV batteries. Therefore, investors should diversify
their portfolio to avoid investing too much capital in EV stocks, yet, the inputs of production
Technological Change
The availability of EV-charging infrastructure is a major technological requirement in
the journey towards EV adoption and penetration. American, European, and Chinese markets
have widely adopted the use of electric vehicles for mobility purposes, leading to the
installation of convenient public EV charging centers. Indeed, there is a positive shift towards
the electrification of the mass market transportation network, while new initiatives are being
set in place to boost the EV battery technology. There are increasingly new expertise and
product innovation in the EV market as more countries plan to phase-out the outdated internal
combustion engine (ICE) car production. Within the next 10 to 30 years, we will be seeing an
adoption of new technologies to support the production and adoption of EVs. The lowemissions technology will continue to evolve, and some of the changes can be seen in
markets like China, whereby new technology is being used to develop EV units with longer
driving ranges, improved fuel consumption, and high-density batteries. In Japan,
technological changes can be seen in the 2017 Basic Hydrogen Strategy, whereby the country
aims to expand the production of hydrogen, while making fuel more affordable and abundant.
In India, there are plans underway to roll out electrical buses, a program supported through
direct vehicle subsidies. These clean vehicle technologies are also being widely adopted by
EU member states, wherein Spain, Germany, Italy, and France are using policy measures to
launch electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Norway and Netherlands are moving towards
electric trucks and buses, while the District of Columbia and 15 US states are targeting to
convert all new commercial HDVs into ZEVs, by 2050 (Global EV Outlook, 2021). Many
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technological advancements will be experienced in the near future and EV market investors
should keep an eye out for companies with a high propensity to embrace new innovations.
Short to Medium-Term Factors
The EV market faces multiple short and medium-term factors affecting its growth.
One short-term factor is the current COVID-19 crisis, whereby the production and sales of
new EVs came to halt when the global ecosystem and transport networks were stopped in
measures aimed at controlling the initial outbreak. Many manufacturers had to await the
reopening of borders and local lockdowns to resume production. The production suspension
over the first few months of the COVID-19 outbreak, in early to mid-2020, coupled with the
slump in demand had adverse effects on EV sales. However, after the resumption of
operations, the demand for EVs increased in the latter months of 2020. The post lockdown
sales continued to increase as more governments across the world offered incentives and
encouragement to adopt the use of fuel-efficient vehicles. As a result, between June 2020 to
date, the demand for BEVs, PHEVs, and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) has growth
tremendously (MarketsandMarkets, n.d.). Overall, the EV market did not suffer sustainable
losses due to the pandemic.
The EV industry and adoption of EVs is also slow due to the poor availability of
charging stations. The demand for EVs is yet to pick in many economies and investors are
hesitant to build charging stations so long as the demand is low. Additionally, a consumer’s
intention to use an EV is dependent on the battery life and aging. Lithium-ion batteries are
the leading sources of power for EVs because they have high energy density, efficiency, and
they are environmentally sustainable. However, the batteries are highly degradable, requiring
the user to control the charge capacity, while other users are wary of the slow charging
speeds (Foley, Degirmenci & Yigitcanlar, 2020). As more advancements in EV batteries
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continue to take shape and as more jurisdictions embrace the EV technology, these short-term
factors will be a thing of the past. Therefore, investors should prepare for an increased update
of the EVs and high returns in the long-term.
Conclusion
Europe is the leading market in terms of increased uptake of EVs, followed by China,
and finally, the US. The industry trends are driven by zero emission standards and regulations
across jurisdictions, and government incentives and subsidies. Tesla remains the leading
player in the market, but the company is set to face stiff competition from new entrants like
GM, Ford, Li Auto, Nio, and Nikola Corp. The political factors affecting the EV industry
include government incentives and policies and the ability to form strategic partnerships with
key stakeholders. Economically, government subsidies and tax reduction initiatives, reduction
in EV battery costs, and consumer spending patterns influence the adoption of EVs.
Jurisdictions and cities that have embraced this new technology can expect to see positive
economic impacts in the form of job growth. Social trends, such as consumer education,
class, and affinity for environmentalism help promote the uptake of EVs, while poverty and
civil unrest associated with mismanagement of EV raw materials are a downside towards the
global adoption of low-emission vehicles. Technological changes, including the installation
of convenient public charging stations are key to the success of the industry, while
obsolescence is a source of discouragement towards the adoption of EVs. Despite the effects
of the COVID-19 crisis on travel and EV production and sales, the industry survived and has
continued to thrive as more governments encourage and support EV use. Even so, the slow
demand for electric vehicles is causing hesitation by investors to put up more charging
stations, but as the demand for EVs increases, this trend is likely to reverse in the near future.
Overall, the EV market is worth investing in, and it is advisable to diversify across stocks of
new market entrants.
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Bibliography
Center on Global Energy Policy. (n.d.). Guide to Chinese climate policy: Electric vehicles.
https://chineseclimatepolicy.energypolicy.columbia.edu/en/electric-vehicles
Foley, B., Degirmenci, K., & Yigitcanlar, T. (2020). Factors affecting electric vehicle uptake:
Insights from a descriptive analysis in Australia. Urban Science, 4(57), 1-19.
Gersdorf, T., Hertzke, P., Schaufuss, P., & Schenk, S. (2020). McKinsey electric vehicle
index: Europe cushions a global plunge in EV sales. McKinsey & Company.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/ourinsights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales
Global EV Outlook. (2021). Trends and developments in electric vehicle markets. IEA.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/trends-and-developments-inelectric-vehicle-markets
Hicks, C. (2021). Tesla competitors: 6 rival electric vehicle stocks. U.S. News.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/slideshows/upstart-teslacompetitors-to-watch?slide=6
MarketsandMarkets. (n.d.). Electric vehicle market.
https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/electric-vehicle-market209371461.html
Petrauskiene, K., Dvarioniene, J., Kaveckis, G., Kliaugaite, D., Chenadec, J., Hehn, L…&
Erman, M. (2020). Situation analysis of policies for electric mobility development:
Experience from five European regions. Sustainability, 12(2935), 1-21.
doi:10.3390/su12072935
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Shieber, J. (2020). California will require all passenger vehicles sold in the state be zeroemission by 2035. TechCrunch. https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/23/california-willrequire-all-passenger-vehicles-sold-in-the-state-be-zero-emission-by-2035/
Singh, A. (2020). Electric vehicle market. Allied Market Research.
https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/electric-vehicle-market
Vidhi, R., Shrivastava, P., & Parikh, A. (2021). Social and technological impact of businesses
surrounding electric vehicles. Clean Technology, 3, 31-97.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cleantechnol3010006
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Appendices
Fig. 1: Electric Vehicle Market Report
Source: (MarketsandMarkets, n.d.)
Fig. 2: Global Electric Car Models
Source: (Global EV Outlook, 2021)
Fig. 3: Active Metals for Manufacturing Lithium-Ion EV Batteries
Source: (Vidhi et al., 2021)


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